diff --git a/src/pagination/paginators/BasePaginator.ts b/src/pagination/paginators/BasePaginator.ts
index 4ee69790a..6197f8af8 100644
--- a/src/pagination/paginators/BasePaginator.ts
+++ b/src/pagination/paginators/BasePaginator.ts
@@ -529,6 +529,8 @@ export abstract class BasePaginator<T, Q, R = PaginationQueryReturnValue<T>> {
   protected _executeQueryDebounced!: DebouncedExecQueryFunction<Q>;
   /** Last effective query shape produced by the subclass for the most recent request. */
   protected _lastQueryShape?: Q;
+  /** Set by `setItems`, which loads a page (even an empty one) without a query. */
+  private _pageSetWithoutQuery = false;
 
   /**
    * Stable, purely data-driven comparison (age, timestamps, ...). Default for
@@ -645,6 +647,18 @@ export abstract class BasePaginator<T, Q, R = PaginationQueryReturnValue<T>> {
     return typeof this._lastQueryShape !== 'undefined';
   }
 
+  /**
+   * True once a page was loaded: by a query, or by `setItems`, including an empty page (e.g. a
+   * catch-all list seeded so it never runs its own query). Items that live events ingested into a
+   * never-queried list are not a loaded page, although they make `items` defined: a UI deciding
+   * whether to run the first query reads this, not `items === undefined`. Unlike `isInitialized`,
+   * an empty `setItems` page counts, so connection recovery (which re-runs initialized lists'
+   * queries) still skips such a list. Cleared by `resetState`.
+   */
+  get hasLoadedPage() {
+    return this._pageSetWithoutQuery || this.isInitialized;
+  }
+
   get isOfflineSupportEnabled() {
     return false;
   }
@@ -2682,6 +2696,8 @@ export abstract class BasePaginator<T, Q, R = PaginationQueryReturnValue<T>> {
         newState.hasMoreTail = interval.hasMoreTail;
       }
 
+      // Before the publish below: subscribers read `hasLoadedPage` from inside it.
+      this._pageSetWithoutQuery = true;
       return newState;
     });
 
@@ -3450,13 +3466,15 @@ export abstract class BasePaginator<T, Q, R = PaginationQueryReturnValue<T>> {
   }
 
   resetState() {
+    // Nothing is loaded, so the next query is a first page again. A stale shape would make a
+    // re-query with an unchanged shape a continuation, ingested without `isHead`. Cleared before
+    // the publish below, whose subscribers read `isInitialized` / `hasLoadedPage`.
+    this._lastQueryShape = undefined;
+    this._pageSetWithoutQuery = false;
     this.state.next(this.initialState);
     this.setIntervals([]);
     this.setActiveInterval(undefined);
     this.clearIntervalViews();
-    // Nothing is loaded, so the next query is a first page again. A stale shape would make a
-    // re-query with an unchanged shape a continuation, ingested without `isHead`.
-    this._lastQueryShape = undefined;
   }
 
   /**
diff --git a/test/unit/pagination/paginators/BasePaginator.test.ts b/test/unit/pagination/paginators/BasePaginator.test.ts
index f35a84659..9d16a7066 100644
--- a/test/unit/pagination/paginators/BasePaginator.test.ts
+++ b/test/unit/pagination/paginators/BasePaginator.test.ts
@@ -4534,6 +4534,83 @@ describe('BasePaginator', () => {
         // @ts-expect-error accessing protected property
         expect(paginator._activeIntervalId).toBe(intervals[0].id);
       });
+
+      describe('hasLoadedPage', () => {
+        it('is false until a page is loaded', () => {
+          const paginator = new Paginator();
+          expect(paginator.hasLoadedPage).toBe(false);
+        });
+
+        it('counts an empty page as loaded, without initializing the query shape', () => {
+          const paginator = new Paginator();
+
+          // e.g. a catch-all list seeded so it never runs its own query
+          paginator.setItems({ isLastPage: true, valueOrFactory: [] });
+
+          expect(paginator.hasLoadedPage).toBe(true);
+          // still skipped by connection recovery: there is no query to re-run
+          expect(paginator.isInitialized).toBe(false);
+        });
+
+        it('does not count items ingested into a list that was never queried', () => {
+          const paginator = new Paginator({ itemIndex });
+          paginator.sortComparator = makeComparator<TestItem>({
+            sort: [{ field: 'age', direction: -1 }],
+          });
+
+          paginator.ingestItem(v);
+
+          // the item is shown, but no page was loaded: the first query still has to run
+          expect(paginator.items).toEqual([v]);
+          expect(paginator.hasLoadedPage).toBe(false);
+
+          paginator.removeItem({ item: v });
+
+          expect(paginator.items).toEqual([]);
+          expect(paginator.hasLoadedPage).toBe(false);
+        });
+
+        it('is true after a query placed a page and false again after resetState', () => {
+          const paginator = new Paginator({ itemIndex });
+          paginator.sortComparator = makeComparator<TestItem>({
+            sort: [{ field: 'age', direction: -1 }],
+          });
+
+          paginator.placeQueryPage({
+            direction: 'tailward',
+            isFirstPage: true,
+            queryShape: defaultNextQueryShape,
+            requestedPageSize: 3,
+            results: { items: [] },
+          });
+          expect(paginator.hasLoadedPage).toBe(true);
+
+          paginator.resetState();
+          expect(paginator.hasLoadedPage).toBe(false);
+
+          paginator.setItems({ valueOrFactory: [] });
+          paginator.resetState();
+          expect(paginator.hasLoadedPage).toBe(false);
+        });
+
+        it('is already current when the state change is published', () => {
+          // a UI selector reads it from inside the state subscription
+          const paginator = new Paginator();
+          const seen: boolean[] = [];
+          const unsubscribe = paginator.state.subscribe(() => {
+            seen.push(paginator.hasLoadedPage);
+          });
+
+          paginator.setItems({ valueOrFactory: [] });
+          paginator.resetState();
+          paginator.setItems({ valueOrFactory: [a] });
+          paginator.resetState();
+          unsubscribe();
+
+          // initial call on subscribe, then each setItems / resetState
+          expect(seen).toEqual([false, true, false, true, false]);
+        });
+      });
     });
 
     describe('reload', () => {