feat(analysis): bind prediction-contradiction refusals to an analysis-run profile

[seonghobae]

Consolidation status

fold_into_landing_vehicle — prediction_contradiction_v1 / tepp.prediction_contradiction.v1 is a Validation / Analysis Run profile and changes the same shared integration surface as #416 (Cargo.lock, crates/analysis_engine/Cargo.toml, crates/analysis_engine/src/lib.rs, DOCUMENTATION.md, docs/TRACEABILITY.md, and docs/adr/README.md). It remains a Draft fold child of #416, not an independent protected-main landing authority.

Current exact child head: 8d89bd5f21d7188981bcd990ee5b3b1e2ab826ac. Current surviving #416 head: 03f8de2ed0a0fb842d2022d411814e440df7cfb4. Fresh comparison is diverged: the child has 8 commits not in the surviving vehicle and is 81 surviving-vehicle commits behind, with protected main@a243f18da4a4ca8a8d068c39922537f1f8ed6ad0 as merge base. GitHub therefore reports this child non-mergeable. This is a repair finding, not a reason to Close: unique source/tests/doctoring remain here until a real conflict-resolving ordinary fold verifies inheritance on the surviving head. Because #416 is still actively acquiring causal scientific repairs and exact-head evidence, finish that foundation first rather than repeatedly churning this dependent branch.

Scientific finding and repair

The initial profile incorrectly treated a deliberately mixed four-class fixture as a production-data prerequisite: assignment_count >= 4 and nonzero covered, partial-overlap, adjacent, and contradictory counts were required during execution/artifact validation. Those Allen support classes are observations, not design strata. A real historical census may legitimately contain only covered predictions or only contradictions; absence of a relation class must remain a truthful zero count.

RED a2892b6ad4f632882f63da39eed2d4706ddf9213 adds covered-only and contradiction-only censuses. Causal source repair a64020152300232cb3214a66b45d97225b6d2b5b removes the artificial minimum/four-class gate while preserving nonempty admitted evidence, MAX_EVIDENCE_UNITS, exact class-count sums, refused_promotion_count + covered_count == assignment_count, cutoff-before-duplicate admission, digest validation, and the fixed claim boundary. 6b0c8de64f41bc11f8bf908e0f9cbe854c1e213c removes predecessor tests that encoded the rejected fixture-as-validity rule.

Fresh docs-to-code review found ADR 0079 still contradicted that repaired source: it remained Accepted on a conflicted fold child and still said a mixed four-class census was required. Commit e07b2ff9f78ef456ff911b8643710af20921fe54 repairs the ADR to Proposed implementation lineage under ADR 0002/0016/0022, removes the false class-strata prerequisite, records sparse-census RED/repair lineage, and leaves canonical ADR identity/status normalization to #437. The shared ADR index remains part of the #416 conflict-resolving fold surface rather than independent architecture authority on this child.

The four-class mixed fixture remains useful coverage because it exercises every PredictionContradictionError mapping; it is not a scientific eligibility condition.

Preserved profile evidence

• Profile/contract prediction_contradiction_v1; schema tepp.prediction_contradiction.v1.
• Inference status unmatched_prediction_is_not_observed.
• Binds existing protected-main prediction_contradiction::refuse_promotion semantics rather than duplicating interval truth.
• Covered pairs may authorize promotion; partial overlap, adjacency, and disjoint predictions stay hypothetical/refused as appropriate.
• Request cutoff equality is typed through KnowledgeCutoff::instant().
• AvailableTime <= knowledge_cutoff admission occurs before duplicate-identity checks, so future-unavailable rows cannot perturb historical identity/count results.
• MAX_EVIDENCE_UNITS bounds execution admission and artifact validation.
• contradiction_agreement_rate remains library-side; inspect payloads remain metric-free.
• Not GPU, not MCMC, not topic birth/split/merge, and not implemented-main.

Exact-head merge authority

Only the eventual surviving #416/successor exact head counts after the fold. Child-head checks/reviews do not transfer. Reacquire all required workflows and qualifying independent review on the eventual surviving head. Preserve this Draft while #416 moves; once the foundation vehicle reaches a stable exact head, integrate this child's unique delta through an ordinary conflict-resolving non-force merge/restack and verify every source/test/doctoring/ADR item survived before any successor-based Close. No self-approval, force push, destructive rebase, routine admin bypass, or child-head evidence transfer.

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[seonghobae]

Restack on protected main (a243f18)

• Non-force merge of origin/main (merge commit ddde5f34); the only conflict was the CHANGELOG.md append, both entries kept.
• After the merge, main's documentation contract rejected ADR 0079's fold-child maturity (admitted values: implemented-main|active-PR|partial|accepted-target|research-only|out-of-scope). Changed to active-PR with the feat(analysis): bind template-copy identity refusals to an analysis-run profile #416/[DDD/Delivery Gap] Normalize ADR identity and retire per-stack duplicate numbering #437 lineage note unchanged (2a223461).
• cargo fmt --check flagged two pre-existing layout diffs in prediction_contradiction_sparse_census_contract.rs; rustfmt applied (formatting only).

Local evidence on the pushed head (toolchain 1.98.0): cargo test -p analysis_engine all green (incl. 21 + 6 contract tests), cargo clippy -p analysis_engine --all-targets -D warnings clean, cargo fmt --all --check clean, documentation/workspace/docstring contracts PASS, git diff --check clean.

The other 26 CONFLICTING gap-004/gap-003a/gap-006 Drafts most likely share the same two findings (CHANGELOG append conflict, fold-child maturity); they can be restacked the same way, one PR per verification unit.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[seonghobae]

Base-lineage finding (no change pushed)

This PR's declared base is feat/copy-identity-analysis-run-gap-004 (#416), but #416 is not an ancestor of this head (git merge-base --is-ancestor fails). A trial merge of the restacked #416 into this head conflicts on six files including crates/analysis_engine/src/lib.rs, crates/analysis_engine/Cargo.toml, Cargo.lock, DOCUMENTATION.md, docs/adr/README.md, and CHANGELOG.md — a real fold integration, not an append conflict.

So the remaining CONFLICTING state is against #416, not main (this head already contains main since ddde5f34). Two coherent options for the owner, per the "fold into #416" lineage in the ADR note:

1. fold this artifact into feat(analysis): bind template-copy identity refusals to an analysis-run profile #416 (resolve lib.rs/Cargo.toml module registration once, on feat(analysis): bind template-copy identity refusals to an analysis-run profile #416), then close this Draft as fully superseded with evidence; or
2. retarget this PR to main, where it is conflict-free and independently reviewable.

I did not pick either because it changes the landing authority that #416/#437 define.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code