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Docs: uncertainty quantification guide for transient-chain error bars - #143

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codex/transient-uq-guide
Oct 29, 2026
Merged

tpn merged 3 commits into
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codex/transient-uq-guide

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Base: the single-source PR #141. Merge after it. Documentation only.

Summary

Adds docs/uncertainty-quantification.md, a guide to the error bars the transient-chain example writes for the dipole center, the source position and the PSF flux. The guide covers:

  • the overview: the three quantities, the quadrature sum behind <q>_err, and a three-step workflow (run, read, check)
  • a quick start with launch.py, reading <q>_err and its terms from the catalog, and repeat_catalogs.py
  • each term (fit, corr, kfit, kmatch, mis, and the sky astrometry reported apart): its cause and the cuphoton.xfit, cuphoton.xpois or cuphoton.xrep function that computes it, with links to the component pages
  • the UQ catalog columns and how to rebuild an error bar with one term left out
  • the uq configuration block, what each term needs from the survey and the earlier stages, and the uq.excluded reasons
  • the variance inputs of the generic and rubin adapters
  • the summary.json fields that record how the error bars were built
  • a worked example that builds one PSF-flux error bar from xRep, xPois and xFit without the chain, and what each component gives on its own
  • how to read the repeat test and its arms, what compare_catalogs.py reports, and coverage on injected sources
  • the limits

docs/README.md links the guide under "Adapting and validating". docs/glossary.md gains Correlation factor, Coverage, Error bar, Error budget, Kernel mismatch and Repeat test.

The guide describes the code in this stack. The kernel-mismatch position step and the residual-background term are not in it yet, so the guide lists positions without a kernel-mismatch term as a limit.

Validation

  • The code blocks of "Use the components on their own" ran as written on CPU against this branch, on synthetic images.
  • Function and argument names, CLI flags, configuration keys and defaults, catalog columns, summary.json keys and exclusion reasons were checked against the code. A second read-only review against the code found seven inaccuracies, all fixed in this commit.
  • Every relative link and anchor resolves.
  • pre-commit run --files on the three files: every hook that applies to Markdown passed. The mypy hook did not run because the lockfile supports Linux only and the run was on macOS. No Python changed.

Repository hygiene

  • No credentials, private paths, local datasets, notebook outputs, or generated run artifacts were added.
  • Large binary artifacts are excluded or intentionally tracked through an approved storage plan.
  • Security-sensitive information is not included.
  • User-visible behavior changes are documented.
  • New dependencies and their licenses are documented. (None added.)

Stack

PR Base Line
#137 main xPOIS
#138 main transient-chain example
#139 #138 transient-chain example
#140 #139 transient-chain example
#141 #140 transient-chain example
this PR #141 documentation

Merge each line bottom up.

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@tpn
tpn marked this pull request as ready for review October 29, 2026 21:13
@tpn
tpn self-requested a review as a code owner October 29, 2026 21:13
@tpn
tpn force-pushed the codex/transient-single-source branch from f7bb0fd to 7212a2d Compare October 29, 2026 22:51
melo-gonzo and others added 3 commits October 29, 2026 16:13
Signed-off-by: Carmelo Gonzales <43048528+melo-gonzo@users.noreply.github.com>
…ntification guide

Signed-off-by: Carmelo Gonzales <43048528+melo-gonzo@users.noreply.github.com>
Scale derivative weights by the fitted lobe flux and use the position
fit error when combining the uncertainty terms.

Signed-off-by: Trent Nelson <trentn@nvidia.com>
@tpn
tpn force-pushed the codex/transient-uq-guide branch from 0c56ae6 to 211b10e Compare October 29, 2026 23:13
@tpn
tpn changed the base branch from codex/transient-single-source to main October 29, 2026 23:13
@tpn
tpn merged commit 427713e into main Oct 29, 2026
52 of 62 checks passed
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