Validation ceiling: scenario-design gate, computed calibration artifacts, honest multiplier - #5
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…n, own multiplier - tests/test_scenario_design.py: each scenario toggles exactly the policy switches its published description claims (pinned flag sets incl. the 40% housing subsidy rate), plus two coarse FMM-2023 anchors (GPI GDP peak +0.92% vs ~+1%; baseline 2030 emissions 342.8 vs 'just under 350'). - define_uk/validation.py + validation/baseline_vs_external.csv: the external-comparator table is now computed from the cached run and regression-tested, not prose. - Own GPI multiplier 1.78 (cum dGDP / cum dSPEND_GVT, nominal) replaces the unusable upstream Multiplier_Summary.csv (scenario-invariant columns; TotalDeltaG matches no variable). - Established and documented: no machine-readable numeric scenario results exist for v1.1 (manual stops at baseline; SSRN paper paywalled, earlier scenario set), so targets 2/3 are CLOSED at the achievable ceiling; sources catalogued in validation/published_targets.json. Suite: 130 passed, 1 skipped. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Closes the remaining VALIDATION.md targets 2/3 at the achievable ceiling and turns calibration prose into computed, regression-tested artifacts.
Published-figure search (definitive): the v1.1 manual publishes no scenario results (baseline Table 4 + scenario design parameters only); the George/Dafermos SSRN paper (6541398) is paywalled with no open mirror and its scenario set predates v1.1's regulation policies. The open FMM 2023 conference version provides two coarse text anchors, used with wide vintage tolerances.
What is now gated:
validation/baseline_vs_external.csvcomputed bydefine_uk.validation.baseline_calibration()and drift-tested.Suite: 130 passed, 1 skipped.
🤖 Generated with Claude Code