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docs: add the 2026-10-21 Tic Tac Toe series results - #11

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Frank-Reichenbach merged 3 commits into
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chore/series-models-efforts
Oct 21, 2026
Merged

Frank-Reichenbach merged 3 commits into
mainfrom
chore/series-models-efforts

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@Frank-Reichenbach Frank-Reichenbach commented Oct 21, 2026 •

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Summary

Results of the first Tic Tac Toe series: Haiku, Sonnet and Opus 5.5 at effort low, medium and high, with both prompts on all four profiles, three runs each (216 runs).

Changes

  • lab/matrix.conf: the series' 72 tests, each line with its model and effort, ordered by model, effort, profile and prompt.
  • README and lab.py help: the run and session examples use a test id from lab/matrix.conf instead of test1 and test3, which the new matrix does not have.
  • docs/results/2026-10-21-tic-tac-toe/: the raw results.csv and copies of the prompts, follow-ups, goal, assessment and matrix the series ran with. The README describes the setup, gives medians by model and effort, compares models, efforts, prompts and profiles each over all other parameters, and lists observations and limitations.

Decisions

  • The shipped matrix becomes the series' test list, so run all repeats the series. The previous nine tests (test1 to test9) go.
  • Seven runs that the expired GitHub token broke were deleted and repeated; the README says so.

Tests

No code change; the help-text test expects the new example.

Assisted-by: Claude Opus 5.5 (code generation)
Assisted-by: Claude Opus 5.5 (code review)

Haiku, Sonnet and Opus, each at effort low, medium and high, with both
prompts on all four profiles: 72 tests, ordered by model, effort,
profile and prompt.

Assisted-by: Claude Opus 5.5 (code generation)
216 runs: Haiku, Sonnet and Opus 5.5 at effort low, medium and high,
with both prompts on all four profiles, three runs each. The folder
keeps the raw results and the prompts, follow-ups, goal, assessment
and matrix the series ran with. The README summarizes them by model and
effort, and compares models, efforts, prompts and profiles each over
all other parameters.

Assisted-by: Claude Opus 5.5 (code generation)
- The results README now rounds from exact medians (39 % and 79 % for
  the prompts, 194 s and 174 s), ends the series at 14:26, puts Sonnet
  at about 43 % of Opus and the spread at up to 7.5×, and states the
  prompt and effort reliability differences as tendencies.
- The profile statement now says what the data shows: more start
  context and cost, while output and duration do not follow the
  profile size.
- README and lab.py help no longer name test1 and test3, which the new
  matrix does not have; they use a test id from lab/matrix.conf.

Assisted-by: Claude Opus 5.5 (code generation)
@Frank-Reichenbach
Frank-Reichenbach merged commit e752b6b into main Oct 21, 2026
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@Frank-Reichenbach
Frank-Reichenbach deleted the chore/series-models-efforts branch October 21, 2026 13:30
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