fix(diagnose): surface orphaned Goal state

[Duang777]

Goal And Delivered Outcome

• Goal/source and gap: Related to [Bug]: Guard orphaned Goal state before guided bootstrap or host activation #4801. After fix(goal-start): fence guided bootstrap over orphaned Goal state #4808 blocked guided bootstrap over orphaned project-local Goal state, diagnose --goal-id still treated the same state as ordinary unregistered absence and recommended connect/sync.
• Observable before → after, with the validation row that proves it: the synthetic CLI regression returned exit 0, ok=true, machine_signal=not_connected_or_not_projected, and a quota drill-down before this change. It now returns exit 1, diagnosis_blocked_by=orphaned_goal_state, the existing orphan gate and only its read-only status/backup-preview commands.
• Issue/task and intended base: Related to [Bug]: Guard orphaned Goal state before guided bootstrap or host activation #4801; base main.

Scope And Continuation

• Completed scope and remaining work: completes the diagnose surfacing item from [Bug]: Guard orphaned Goal state before guided bootstrap or host activation #4801 for an explicitly requested Goal whose status snapshot confirms it is absent from the registry. It reuses the existing four-root orphan detector and resolution gate. Project-local archive/adopt and opaque Goal instance identity remain open in [Bug]: Guard orphaned Goal state before guided bootstrap or host activation #4801.
• Slice boundary / successor: the diagnosis path is independently useful and reversible. Invalid registry JSON already fails diagnosis closed through the existing collection-error path; this change fixes the previously clean valid-registry mismatch without changing registry persistence or resolution commands.

Validation

• Tested revision: a595fe5fb96aa0b4a46df224ff4a31db0928b1e3
• Run state: finished
• Input classes: synthetic

Check kind	Result	Public-safe evidence / limitation
regression_parity	passed	New real CLI test failed on the unchanged implementation because diagnose exited 0; it passes on this head with a blocking orphan signal and no quota or --execute command.
unit	passed	121 tests passed on the exact head across the new diagnose regression and the semantic vocabulary and frozen incident-retrodiction checks.
real_entrypoint	passed	Synthetic loopx diagnose --goal-id reset-goal returned ok=false, preserved status_ok=true, reported the relative surviving-state route, and exposed only status plus backup preview. Default Markdown renders the same gate.
integration	passed	agent-diagnose-packet-smoke.py, bootstrap-command-pack-smoke.py, and status-neutral-run-window-smoke.py passed.
static	passed	Ruff, Python compilation, git diff --check, the 14-test maintainability ratchet, and the public-boundary scan passed. The exact-head semantic vocabulary and frozen incident-retrodiction checks pass after keeping the diagnostic action out of the typed quota-action field. A standalone mypy run reports the same 10 pre-existing loopx/diagnose.py errors on base and head.

• Coverage and gaps: the shared orphan detector already covers .loopx, .codex, .claude, and .local Goal-state roots. This change tests the public JSON and Markdown diagnose surfaces plus a no-state negative twin. diagnose without an explicit Goal id does not scan arbitrary orphan directories; [Bug]: Guard orphaned Goal state before guided bootstrap or host activation #4801 is scoped to the requested id. Invalid registry JSON remains a distinct fail-closed collection error rather than being reclassified here.

See validation disclosure guidance.

Frontend / Visual Evidence

• UI impact: none
• Before: N/A
• After: N/A
• States and viewports shown: N/A
• Source data: synthetic
• Attention review: no frontend or first-screen surface changes.

Type of Change

• Bug fix
• New feature
• Breaking change
• Refactoring (no functional changes)
• Documentation update
• Test update

LoopX Area

• Control plane (goals, todos, quota, scheduler, registry, runtime)
• Benchmark boundary (adapters, runners, verifiers, scoring, evidence)
• Capability or extension (providers, adapters, skills)
• Public docs or presentation surface (README, protocols, dashboard)
• Build, packaging, installer, or CI
• Host or runtime integration

Technical Direction

• Direction / acceptance reference, when applicable: Core control-plane hardening; [Bug]: Guard orphaned Goal state before guided bootstrap or host activation #4801 diagnose acceptance.

Shared-authority RFC fixture impact

• Production-scale fixture schema: N/A; no persisted schema changes.
• Semantic dimensions changed, or reviewed no-impact rationale: N/A; this is a read-only diagnosis projection over the existing orphan fact.
• Provider conformance arms run: none; no AuthorityStore or provider behavior changed.
• Read-only legacy/file/PostgreSQL three-arm rehearsal: not applicable; no runtime routing or persistence behavior changed.

Boundary Checklist

• Neither the diff nor this PR body/comments/attachments disclose private state, credentials, raw traces or verifier output, internal links, or local machine paths.
• I did not duplicate maintainer-owned benchmark work unless a maintainer split out a public issue for it.
• I kept the change scoped to the linked issue/task.
• I completed the visual evidence section for UI changes, or marked UI impact none.
• Every commit includes a DCO Signed-off-by trailer (git commit -s).

[Duang777]

Exact-head CI triage for a595fe5fb96aa0b4a46df224ff4a31db0928b1e3:

• test-shard (1) now passes, confirming the unregistered effective_action and frozen retrodiction failures are fixed.
• test-shard (4), Windows, Dashboard, DCO, dependency review, release build, and all Stage 2C lanes pass.
• test-shard (2) and (3) fail only in the two stale canonical-read test doubles already fixed on approved ci: restore TypeScript qualification reliability #4906.
• node-minimum-compatibility fails in the archive cases already fixed on ci: restore TypeScript qualification reliability #4906.
• kernel-static-checks reaches the old 30-minute cap that ci: restore TypeScript qualification reliability #4906 raises to 60 minutes. The non-blocking Node forward probe reaches its existing 20-minute cap.
• The aggregate checks, pytest, and merge-gate failures reflect those dependent jobs; no additional failure appeared.

This branch intentionally does not duplicate #4906. I will merge current main into this branch after #4906 lands, rerun exact-head CI, and then request review.