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Embedded Laplace: run the requested solver when allow_fallthrough is on - #3465

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jachymb:bugfix/laplace-solver-fallthrough
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stan-dev:developfrom
jachymb:bugfix/laplace-solver-fallthrough

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@jachymb

@jachymb jachymb commented Oct 15, 2026

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A small bugfix for an inaccurate logical condition in embedded laplace

AI use disclosure: This was developed with the help of Claude Code (Claude Fable 5.1).

Summary

In laplace_marginal_density_est, the solver-2 attempt was guarded by options.solver == 2 || options.allow_fallthrough, so with the fallthrough on a request for solver 3 ran solver 2 whenever solver 2 converged. The guard now requires options.solver == 1 for the fallthrough case, so the requested solver always runs first and the fallthrough only applies after it fails. Only the *_tol* functions can request solver 3; the others always use solver 1.

Tests

LaplaceSolverFallback.RequestedSolverRunsWithFallthroughAllowed checks solver_used for each requested solver with the fallthrough on and off, and that a failed solver 1 lands on solver 2. It fails on develop (solver 3 requested gives solver_used == 2). The Laplace tests that request solver 3 pass at O=3.

Side Effects

With solver = 3 and allow_fallthrough on, the LU solver now really runs. Its log determinant can be NaN until #3438 is merged, so this PR should go in after #3438. The laplace_latent_tol_* rng and solve functions, which pick the factorisation by the requested solver, previously used an uninitialised LU in this case and now work.

Release notes

Requesting solver 3 in the embedded Laplace approximation now runs solver 3 also when allow_fallthrough is on.

Checklist

  • Copyright holder: Jáchym Barvínek jachymb@gmail.com

    The copyright holder is typically you or your assignee, such as a university or company. By submitting this pull request, the copyright holder is agreeing to the license the submitted work under the following licenses:
    - Code: BSD 3-clause (https://opensource.org/licenses/BSD-3-Clause)
    - Documentation: CC-BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

  • the basic tests are passing

    • unit tests pass (to run, use: ./runTests.py test/unit)
    • header checks pass, (make test-headers)
    • dependencies checks pass, (make test-math-dependencies)
    • docs build, (make doxygen)
    • code passes the built in C++ standards checks (make cpplint)
  • the code is written in idiomatic C++ and changes are documented in the doxygen

  • the new changes are tested


Draft status (not part of the PR text): pushed to origin/bugfix/laplace-solver-fallthrough (a39d756), worktree ../m-fall. Open the issue from laplace-allow-fallthrough-solver-3_ISSUE.md and replace #ISSUE.

The solver-2 attempt was guarded by `solver == 2 || allow_fallthrough`, so
with the fallthrough on a request for solver 3 ran solver 2 and returned its
result whenever it converged. The guard now also requires `solver == 1` for
the fallthrough case, so the requested solver always runs first. Adds a test
that checks `solver_used` for each solver with the fallthrough on and off.
@stan-buildbot

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Name Old Result New Result Ratio Performance change( 1 - new / old )
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/low_dim_corr_gauss/low_dim_corr_gauss.stan 0.01 0.01 1.0 0.33% faster
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/irt_2pl/irt_2pl.stan 4.17 4.14 1.01 0.73% faster
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/pkpd/one_comp_mm_elim_abs.stan 18.75 18.58 1.01 0.92% faster
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/pkpd/sim_one_comp_mm_elim_abs.stan 0.24 0.24 1.01 1.05% faster
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/low_dim_gauss_mix_collapse/low_dim_gauss_mix_collapse.stan 8.23 8.16 1.01 0.84% faster
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/gp_regr/gp_regr.stan 0.1 0.1 1.03 2.64% faster
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/gp_regr/gen_gp_data.stan 0.02 0.02 1.02 2.28% faster
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/eight_schools/eight_schools.stan 0.06 0.06 1.01 1.21% faster
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/low_dim_gauss_mix/low_dim_gauss_mix.stan 2.65 2.65 1.0 0.11% faster
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/arK/arK.stan 1.53 1.53 1.01 0.62% faster
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/sir/sir.stan 67.01 66.97 1.0 0.06% faster
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/garch/garch.stan 0.42 0.44 0.96 -4.6% slower
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/gp_pois_regr/gp_pois_regr.stan 2.17 2.13 1.02 1.95% faster
stat_comp_benchmarks/benchmarks/arma/arma.stan 0.28 0.28 1.0 0.09% faster
performance.compilation 254.84 237.21 1.07 6.92% faster
Mean result: 1.0107166323893286

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Commit hash: 29e32c4215464fd5550540ce9a448016d22be56f

Machine information
Distributor ID:	Ubuntu
Description:	Ubuntu 20.04.3 LTS
Release:	20.04
Codename:	focal

CPU:

Architecture:                            x86_64
CPU op-mode(s):                          32-bit, 64-bit
Byte Order:                              Little Endian
Address sizes:                           46 bits physical, 48 bits virtual
CPU(s):                                  80
On-line CPU(s) list:                     0-79
Thread(s) per core:                      2
Core(s) per socket:                      20
Socket(s):                               2
NUMA node(s):                            2
Vendor ID:                               GenuineIntel
CPU family:                              6
Model:                                   85
Model name:                              Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6248 CPU @ 2.50GHz
Stepping:                                7
CPU MHz:                                 999.928
CPU max MHz:                             3900.0000
CPU min MHz:                             1000.0000
BogoMIPS:                                5000.00
L1d cache:                               1.3 MiB
L1i cache:                               1.3 MiB
L2 cache:                                40 MiB
L3 cache:                                55 MiB
NUMA node0 CPU(s):                       0,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,54,56,58,60,62,64,66,68,70,72,74,76,78
NUMA node1 CPU(s):                       1,3,5,7,9,11,13,15,17,19,21,23,25,27,29,31,33,35,37,39,41,43,45,47,49,51,53,55,57,59,61,63,65,67,69,71,73,75,77,79
Vulnerability Gather data sampling:      Mitigation; Microcode
Vulnerability Indirect target selection: Mitigation; Aligned branch/return thunks
Vulnerability Itlb multihit:             KVM: Mitigation: VMX unsupported
Vulnerability L1tf:                      Not affected
Vulnerability Mds:                       Not affected
Vulnerability Meltdown:                  Not affected
Vulnerability Mmio stale data:           Mitigation; Clear CPU buffers; SMT vulnerable
Vulnerability Old microcode:             Not affected
Vulnerability Reg file data sampling:    Not affected
Vulnerability Retbleed:                  Mitigation; Enhanced IBRS
Vulnerability Spec rstack overflow:      Not affected
Vulnerability Spec store bypass:         Mitigation; Speculative Store Bypass disabled via prctl
Vulnerability Spectre v1:                Mitigation; usercopy/swapgs barriers and __user pointer sanitization
Vulnerability Spectre v2:                Mitigation; Enhanced / Automatic IBRS; IBPB conditional; PBRSB-eIBRS SW sequence; BHI SW loop, KVM SW loop
Vulnerability Srbds:                     Not affected
Vulnerability Tsa:                       Not affected
Vulnerability Tsx async abort:           Mitigation; TSX disabled
Vulnerability Vmscape:                   Mitigation; IBPB before exit to userspace
Flags:                                   fpu vme de pse tsc msr pae mce cx8 apic sep mtrr pge mca cmov pat pse36 clflush dts acpi mmx fxsr sse sse2 ss ht tm pbe syscall nx pdpe1gb rdtscp lm constant_tsc art arch_perfmon pebs bts rep_good nopl xtopology nonstop_tsc cpuid aperfmperf pni pclmulqdq dtes64 monitor ds_cpl smx est tm2 ssse3 sdbg fma cx16 xtpr pdcm pcid dca sse4_1 sse4_2 x2apic movbe popcnt tsc_deadline_timer aes xsave avx f16c rdrand lahf_lm abm 3dnowprefetch cpuid_fault epb cat_l3 cdp_l3 intel_ppin ssbd mba ibrs ibpb stibp ibrs_enhanced fsgsbase tsc_adjust bmi1 avx2 smep bmi2 erms invpcid cqm mpx rdt_a avx512f avx512dq rdseed adx smap clflushopt clwb intel_pt avx512cd avx512bw avx512vl xsaveopt xsavec xgetbv1 xsaves cqm_llc cqm_occup_llc cqm_mbm_total cqm_mbm_local dtherm ida arat pln pts hwp hwp_act_window hwp_epp hwp_pkg_req pku ospke avx512_vnni md_clear flush_l1d arch_capabilities

G++:

g++ (Ubuntu 9.4.0-1ubuntu1~20.04) 9.4.0
Copyright (C) 2019 Free Software Foundation, Inc.
This is free software; see the source for copying conditions.  There is NO
warranty; not even for MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.

Clang:

clang version 10.0.0-4ubuntu1 
Target: x86_64-pc-linux-gnu
Thread model: posix
InstalledDir: /usr/bin

@SteveBronder

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Nice! This one makes sense and is good. I need to review/merge #3438 before merging this one

@avehtari avehtari added the bug label Oct 16, 2026

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